My2050.be | Create your own scenario for a low carbon society by 2050

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Create your own scenario for a low carbon society by 2050

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My scenario - results in a glimpse

These graphs show the emissions and the emission reductions in 2050 as a result of your scenario, compared to the emission levels in 1990 (the official reference year for emissions) and the reference scenario (in which all levers are set at level 1).

GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN 2050
(compared to the level in 1990)

Your scenario:	-XX %
Reference scenario (levers at level 1):	( -XX % )

PER SECTOR
	Transport	Buildings	Industry	Energy supply	Agriculture
Your scenario:	-XX %	-XX %	-XX %	-XX %	-XX %
Reference scenario (levers at level 1):	( -XX % )	( -XX % )	( -XX % )	( -XX % )	( -XX % )

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN 2050
(compared to the level in 2010)

	Total energy demand	Electricity	Fossil fuels	Biomass
Your scenario:	-XX %	-XX %	-XX %	-XX %
Reference scenario (levers at level 1):	( -XX % )	( -XX % )	( -XX % )	( -XX % )

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My scenario for 2050

Lever		Level	Description

	TRANSPORT: Behaviour	4	Transport demand per person: -20% Occupancy rate: cars +15%, buses +50%, trains +33%. Proportion of the different means of transport: 55% per car, 25% per bus and coach, 13% per rail, 6% on foot or by bike.

	TRANSPORT: Technology	4	Passenger transport: Energy efficiency: car combustion engines +50%, plug-in hybrid cars +50-55%, electric cars +55%; all types of buses +30%, diesel trains +40% and electric trains +30%; Engine types: 100% electric cars (80% battery-powered, 20% fuel cell-powered); buses 45% plug-in hybrid and 35% electric (30% battery-powered, 5% fuel cell-powered). Goods transport: Energy efficiency: diesel-powered lorries +35%; diesel trains +40% and electric trains +30%; Engine types: lorries 35% diesel (hybrid), 45% CNG (hybrid) and 20% electric; trains 10% diesel and 90% electric; Transport modes: 55% via road, 20% via rail, 25% via inland waterways.

	BUILDINGS: Behaviour	4	Homes: Proportion of apartments in new homes: 40%; Average indoor temperature: 20°C; demand for domestic hot water: +20%.; 60% have air-conditioning; Electricity demand: lighting -40%, white goods stable, brown goods +12.5%. Trade premises/offices: Energy demand for heating and cooling: 2.3% average annual increase up to 2020, then 1.8% average annual increase (2030-2050); Electricity demand: lighting +7%, equipment +131%.

	BUILDINGS: Technology	4	Homes: As a result of renovations, heating demand from existing buildings decreases from 140 to 30 kWh/m² in 2050; energy demand from new homes steadily decreases to the passive house standard (15 kWh/m²) from 2020. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps (electric); 40% share of alternative technologies in non-electrical systems. Trade premises/offices: Heating demand decreases by 85%. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps; 40% share of alternative technologies in the non-electrical systems. 50% have air conditioning, but the increase in passive cooling systems leads to a 90% decrease in the energy demand for cooling.

	INDUSTRY: Production	4	Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum.

	INDUSTRY: Carbon intensity	4	Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum.

	INDUSTRY: CCS	4	Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum.

	ENERGY: Wind & solar	4	Wind energy: capacity on land increases to 13 GW (installation of 460 MW or 180 turbines per year), at sea to 16.5 GW (+ 600 MW or 100 turbines per year). Solar energy: photovoltaic capacity increases to 50 GW (average + 1,400 MW per year in 2010-2050), thermal capacity gradually increases to an average of 5m² per household.

	ENERGY: Hydro & geothermal	4	Hydroelectricity: 150 MW in 2050 (an increase of 40 MW). Geothermal electricity: an installed capacity of 500 MW in 2025, increasing to 6 GW in 2050.

	ENERGY: Import	4	To meet demand in 2050, Belgium imports maximum 17 TWh (which is 20% of the domestic production of 84 TWh in 2010).

	ENERGY: Biomass	4	Production in Belgium: 33 TWh in 2020 followed by an increase to 45 TWh in 2050. Imports: gradual increase to 20 TWh in 2020 and 56 TWh in 2050. Share in electricity production: 60%

	AGRICULTURE: Diet	4	With continuing population growth and a change made to consumption patterns: decreased meat consumption and a 43% (approx. 24 million animals) drop in animal numbers.

	AGRICULTURE: Technology	4	Methane: emissions decrease per animal by 16% in 2050 in comparison to 2010. Nitrogen from dung (per animal): slight annual decrease (- 3.2%) until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050 (due to increased productivity). Emissions 47% lower in 2050. Nitrogen from soil: slight annual decrease (- 0.5%) per hectare until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050. Emissions 10% lower in 2050 in comparison to 2010.

Compare your own 2050 scenario with others

bubble-graph-intro

		:	: 'your' scenario
		:	: other saved scenarios. The size of the bubble increases with the amount of saved scenarios with the same reduction target.
		:	: scenarios of a number of VIPs
		:	: 4 sample scenarios deriving from the Study on 'Scenarios for a Low Carbon Belgium by 2050'

1990

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Geothermal
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Import of
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Bio-
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Diet

Techno-
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Display Chart 1 | Chart 2 | Chart 3

1/ The type of building: The energy consumption used to heat a building depends partly on the occupied area and the type of construction: individual homes - and certainly detached homes - usually consume much more energy than apartments. The proportion of apartments in the total number of new homes in Belgium is currently 53%. Depending on the level of ambition this proportion can decrease to 40% or rise to 77% in 2050. The latter can reduce the demand for heating enormously.

2/ The demand for heating and cooling (air-conditioning): If we consider all of the rooms together (including those unheated), the average temperature of our homes is currently 18°C. This average is expected to gradually increase to 20°C in 2050 if no additional measures are taken. Yet it is possible to get this average to drop to 16°C, for instance, by heating just the areas that are effectively in use and by maintaining a lower temperature in other rooms (bedrooms, attic, etc.) or through measures that promote efficient use of the heating (such as switching to a night temperature at the end of the evening or when absent). The demand for domestic hot water is also expected to increase by 20% in 2050 (compared to 2010) if no additional measures are taken. A decrease of 50% is nevertheless possible. Analogously, the use of air conditioning systems (now in 4% of homes) will increase sharply to 60% in 2050 if no additional measures are taken. This upward trend can also be avoided: ambition level 4 results in a stabilisation at 4% in 2050, namely at the same level as in 2010.

3/ The choice and use of appliances and lighting: There is still great potential for reducing the energy consumption of lighting, white goods (large white household appliances such as washing machines, dryers, refrigerators or freezers) and brown goods (electronic appliances such as TVs, audio equipment, etc.), both by purchasing energy-efficient models and using them judiciously.

Display Chart 1 | Chart 2 | Chart 3

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES Spatial planning, characterised by a greater concentration of residential hubs and more compact buildings, can also have a positive impact on transport demand. A decrease in energy demand has a positive effect on energy bills.	CHALLENGES Changing the housing stock and evolving towards more efficient spatial planning is not something that will happen overnight. This will be a long-term process requiring extensive planning. Raising awareness is necessary in order to achieve the desired behavioural changes.

Display Chart 1 | Chart 2 | Chart 3

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES Well-insulated walls provide a greater feeling of comfort allowing for a lower indoor temperature and thus considerable energy savings. A decrease in energy demand has a positive effect on energy bills. The creation of local employment opportunities	CHALLENGES The need for skilled workers and appropriate training. The need for a drastic increase in the renovation rate (up to the double). Buildings that are not energy-efficient could have a lower value when sold.

Scenario A = increase in all sectors
Scenario B = no growth in any sector except in chemicals (non-ETS), food and construction
Scenario C = decrease in all sectors except in nonferrous, food and construction

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES The challenges of a low-carbon society can encourage research and innovation, promote the competitiveness of our industries, lead to new industries in sectors for the future and, in this way, promote employment. Energy efficiency improvements and the switch to renewable energy sources ensure decreased sensitivity to international energy price fluctuations.	CHALLENGES In some sectors large investments will be required in order to further reduce emissions.

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES The technology enables substantial emissions reductions in large industries.	CHALLENGES There are still uncertainties about the technical and economic feasibility. One concern regards the possible leakage of stored CO₂ and the associated safety risks and liability. It concerns a very energy intensive technology.

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES Introducing the net import of electricity can be economically viable if the price of the energy purchased is lower than the energy we produce. The improvement of the transmission networks helps solving the issue of the intermittent character of certain renewable energy sources.	CHALLENGES By definition, the net import of electricity means a certain degree of dependence that may involve economic or other risks.

Technological improvements made in the agricultural sector have a relatively limited impact on greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, behavioural changes can have a sizable impact. These are even necessary according to the World Health Organization, which states that the current average meat consumption is too high. The national nutrition plan indicates that a healthy diet contains 75 to 100 grams of meat, fish, eggs (and meat substitutes) per person per day whereas the average Belgian consumes approximately twice as much.

Livestock is responsible for a large share of the greenhouse gas emissions: l, via enteric fermentation (mostly by ruminants, such as cows, sheep and goats) and their dung, large quantities of methane are released into the atmosphere . Although nitrogen is mainly released via soil emissions, a smaller quantity is released via the dung. Methane and nitrogen are particularly strong greenhouse gases characterised by warming capacities that are respectively 20 and 310 times higher than that of CO₂!

Size of the livestock population: In 2010, the livestock population amounted to almost 42 million animals. Without a change into diets (ambition level 1) and taking into account rising human population growth, the livestock population will have grown by 2% to approximately 43 million animals by 2050 in comparison with 2010. In case of major behavioural changes (ambition level 4), meat consumption will drop and by 2050 livestock numbers will have dropped by roughly 43% (roughly amounting to 'just' 24 million animals).

Note: Our country undertakes very intensive cattle breeding, almost half of this is intended for export. The latter could mean that a significant degree of meat production will still exist in Belgium when Belgians initiate and introduce thorough changes to their consumption patterns. However, the model assumes that consumption patterns in countries that Belgium exports to will undergo the same development as that experienced in Belgium.

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES This could have various health benefits (reduced risk of cardiovascular diseases and vascular accidents, etc).	CHALLENGES It requires a major change to consumption patterns in our society. These are however strongly linked to cultural traditions. The changes in this sector surpasses the climate challenge. All functions/dimensions of this sector have to be considered: the production of high-quality food first, while protecting the environment (biodiversity, water,...)

Display Chart 1 | Chart 2 | Chart 3

OPPORTUNITIES	CHALLENGES
OPPORTUNITIES A better dung and soil management programme can reduce the run-off of nitrogen caused by rain and in turn improve the quality of both river water and groundwater.	CHALLENGES It requires a reorientation of the current agricultural practices in a sector that is exposed to international competition.

			The educational web tool 'My2050' is an initiative of the Climate Change Section of the Federal Public Service Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment.


			Strategic advice and energy/emissions modelling www.climact.com

			Programming and design of the web tool (including the animated landscape) www.climatemediafactory.de

			Development of 7 video-animations (excluding the animated landscape) www.cronos.be www.legioen.tv


			Development of the 'Manual for teachers', testing and promotion within schools www.wwf.be

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