| Lever | Level | Description | ||||
| TRANSPORT: Behaviour | 4 |
Transport demand per person: -20% Occupancy rate: cars +15%, buses +50%, trains +33%. Proportion of the different means of transport: 55% per car, 25% per bus and coach, 13% per rail, 6% on foot or by bike. | |||
| TRANSPORT: Technology | 4 |
Passenger transport:
Energy efficiency: car combustion engines +50%, plug-in hybrid cars +50-55%, electric cars +55%; all types of buses +30%, diesel trains +40% and electric trains +30%; Engine types: 100% electric cars (80% battery-powered, 20% fuel cell-powered); buses 45% plug-in hybrid and 35% electric (30% battery-powered, 5% fuel cell-powered).
Goods transport: Energy efficiency: diesel-powered lorries +35%; diesel trains +40% and electric trains +30%; Engine types: lorries 35% diesel (hybrid), 45% CNG (hybrid) and 20% electric; trains 10% diesel and 90% electric; Transport modes: 55% via road, 20% via rail, 25% via inland waterways. | |||
| BUILDINGS: Behaviour | 4 |
Homes: Proportion of apartments in new homes: 40%; Average indoor temperature: 20°C; demand for domestic hot water: +20%.; 60% have air-conditioning; Electricity demand: lighting -40%, white goods stable, brown goods +12.5%.
Trade premises/offices: Energy demand for heating and cooling: 2.3% average annual increase up to 2020, then 1.8% average annual increase (2030-2050); Electricity demand: lighting +7%, equipment +131%. | |||
| BUILDINGS: Technology | 4 |
Homes: As a result of renovations, heating demand from existing buildings decreases from 140 to 30 kWh/m² in 2050; energy demand from new homes steadily decreases to the passive house standard (15 kWh/m²) from 2020. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps (electric); 40% share of alternative technologies in non-electrical systems.
Trade premises/offices: Heating demand decreases by 85%. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps; 40% share of alternative technologies in the non-electrical systems. 50% have air conditioning, but the increase in passive cooling systems leads to a 90% decrease in the energy demand for cooling. | |||
| INDUSTRY: Production | 4 |
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| INDUSTRY: Carbon intensity | 4 |
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| INDUSTRY: CCS | 4 |
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| ENERGY: Wind & solar | 4 |
Wind energy: capacity on land increases to 13 GW (installation of 460 MW or 180 turbines per year), at sea to 16.5 GW (+ 600 MW or 100 turbines per year).
Solar energy: photovoltaic capacity increases to 50 GW (average + 1,400 MW per year in 2010-2050), thermal capacity gradually increases to an average of 5m² per household. | |||
| ENERGY: Hydro & geothermal | 4 |
Hydroelectricity: 150 MW in 2050 (an increase of 40 MW).
Geothermal electricity: an installed capacity of 500 MW in 2025, increasing to 6 GW in 2050. | |||
| ENERGY: Import | 4 | To meet demand in 2050, Belgium imports maximum 17 TWh (which is 20% of the domestic production of 84 TWh in 2010). | |||
| ENERGY: Biomass | 4 |
Production in Belgium: 33 TWh in 2020 followed by an increase to 45 TWh in 2050.
Imports: gradual increase to 20 TWh in 2020 and 56 TWh in 2050. Share in electricity production: 60% | |||
| AGRICULTURE: Diet | 4 | With continuing population growth and a change made to consumption patterns: decreased meat consumption and a 43% (approx. 24 million animals) drop in animal numbers. | |||
| AGRICULTURE: Technology | 4 |
Methane: emissions decrease per animal by 16% in 2050 in comparison to 2010. Nitrogen from dung (per animal): slight annual decrease (- 3.2%) until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050 (due to increased productivity). Emissions 47% lower in 2050. Nitrogen from soil: slight annual decrease (- 0.5%) per hectare until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050. Emissions 10% lower in 2050 in comparison to 2010. | |||